According to the decision published in the Official Gazette, companies will receive corporate tax exemption for their foreign currency earnings when they open a TRY time deposit of at least 3 months from 4Q21 until the tax filing deadline. According to this;
· Temporary article added to the corporate tax law with the law numbered 6698; It was stated that the balances of the FX and gold accounts and the processed and scrap gold accounts to be opened as of January 1 are within the scope of this provisional article of the Corporate Tax Law.
· Corporate taxpayers who convert their foreign currency and gold accounts to TRY from exchange rate/price within the scope of supporting the conversion of their foreign currency and gold accounts into TRY deposit and participation accounts will be able to benefit from this exemption for the period and in the manner stipulated in the temporary article 14 of the Corporate Tax Law.
· In this context, foreign exchange earnings arising from the end-of-period valuation of taxpayers’ foreign currency for the fourth temporary taxation period will be exempted from corporate tax.
With the incentives, primarily tax exemptions, to be given to companies that convert their foreign currency and gold deposit accounts into time deposits in Turkish lira, it is aimed to reflect this on the corporate demand side and to create a broad image. Total deposits (TRY+FX) in the banking sector amounted to TRY 5 trillion 371 billion as of February 4, according to Central Bank data. Since the beginning of the year, on the FX deposit side, we have been monitoring the conversion effect within the scope of the currency protected product. These transformations gained momentum especially after the incorporation of corporate accounts, and it is likely that the transformations will continue for a while in the coming period. On the other hand, the fact that these transformation steps taken within the scope of liraization actually index the return of the local currency accounts to the foreign exchange income will create asymmetry, especially if the exchange rate increases more than the interest given. Frankly, we do not see the effects of this situation as sustainable in terms of completing the de-dollarization process. In FX-linked deposit, which has a ceiling interest of 17%, the periodic return tied to a 3-month maturity is at the level of 4.25%. Periodic inflation, which we saw only in January, is 11.1%. The depreciation of the lira against the dollar is 1.2% since the beginning of the year, and if this trend does not change until the end of the period, the accounts will have achieved a return well below the inflation rate.
Currency-protected deposit product helped to stabilize the foreign exchange after 20 December and a certain level of stability was achieved. This is positive, at least in the sense that it does not add to the price shocks previously exposed. This balance may continue for a while as long as the effect of conversion to FX-linked deposit continues and we can observe stable bands in the exchange rate. However, internal macroeconomic risks and external financial risks are on the table. In an environment of high inflation and negative real interest rates, the Fed’s rate hikes weighing on the expectation of depreciation on the lira side, may increase the demand for foreign exchange on the individual and corporate side again. In this respect, it is important that the converted amounts remain in FX-linked deposit and that new cycles continue in the first 3-month maturity date in March. If a volatility in the exchange rate exceeds the interest rates persists, the burdens on the finance side will also affect the continuation of the FX-linked deposit application and the exit strategy. Therefore, we will continue to monitor the factors we have pointed out.
FX-linked deposit should not be viewed as a long-term financial instrument, it is a financial product that can be protected for a certain period of time. FX-linked deposit is a time-saving tool to manage inflation expectations without using monetary policy in the current conditions. At this point, while trying to achieve sustainable growth in the economy, the disinflation process will be tried to be supported by keeping the exchange rate in balance. The demand for foreign currency is limited thanks to the free option feature of FX-linked deposit, and a stabilization is achieved in the exchange rate, albeit temporarily, which is positive. If the difficulties regarding the decrease in inflation are not resolved in this process, the aim of not succumbing to inflation may increase the expectations regarding the increase in exchange rates due to these low lira interest rates. This makes it difficult to maintain the practice and causes strain on public finances. It is necessary to calculate the effects on public deficits and emissions within the framework of underwriting on both the Treasury product and the CBRT product. Therefore, an increase in the exchange rate should be considered as a multidimensional risk.
Kaynak Tera Yatırım-Enver Erkan
Hibya Haber Ajansı